| 1- 🌍 Atmospheric Forcing & Planetary Energy Balance | | | | | |
| 1
| Global energy imbalance / OHC | Most integrative measure of planetary warming; leads surface temperature and captures masked warming. | NASA CERES, NOAA/PMEL OHC, IAP OHC | ZJ/year heat uptake |
| 2
| Global mean surface temperature anomaly | Simple, communicable indicator tightly coupled to impacts and policy thresholds. | NASA GISTEMP, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth | °C vs 1850 to 1900 |
| 3 | Atmospheric CO₂e concentration (CO₂ + CH₄ + N₂O) | Direct forcing driver including key non CO2 gases. | NOAA ESRL (Mauna Loa), AGAGE | ppm CO2e |
| 2- 🌊 Oceanic Equilibrium & Acidification | | | | | |
| 4 | Ocean acidification (Ωarag, tropics) | Controls coral/shell-forming organisms; fundamentally alters marine food webs. | NOAA OA System, ICOS Oceans, GOA-ON
| Ω_arag at 0 to 20m in tropics
|
| 5 | Marine heatwaves (global DHW) | Captures acute stress on reefs, kelp, and fisheries; you’re already collecting DHW. | NOAA Coral Reef Watch | Global mean DHW |
| 6 | Marine biomass & deoxygenation | Fisheries risk | | |
| 3- 🧊 Cryosphere Integrity & Sea-Level Commitment | | | | | |
| 7 | Greenland Ice Sheet stability | Long-term SLR commitment and AMOC freshwater forcing. | IMBIE, NSIDC, GRACE-FO | Gt/yr mass balance |
| 8 | West Antarctic Ice Sheet stability | Largest tail risk contributor to multi-meter sea-level rise this century/next. | IMBIE, MEaSUREs, CryoSat-2/ICESata-2 | Gt/yr mass balance |
| 9 | Arctic sea ice extent/thickness | Key albedo feedback and high-latitude amplification proxy. | NSIDC, PIOMAS | September extent & mean thickness |
| 4- 🌱 Carbon & Hydrological Feedback Loops | | | | | |
| 10 | Permafrost thaw & carbon emissions | Irreversible carbon feedback (CO2/CH4) with infrastructure impacts. | GTN-P, ESA CCI Permafrost | Active-layer thickness / TgC/yr |
| 11 | Amazon rainforest dieback risk | Moisture-recycling engine and carbon store with regional/global teleconnections. | INPE/DETER/PRODES, FLUXNET, SMOS/SMAP | Forest loss % / evapotranspiration |
| 12 | Boreal biome shift (net) | Net indicator of southern die-off vs northern expansion affecting albedo and fire. | MODIS/VIIRS, GFED, national forest inventories | Biome fraction & burned area |
| 13 | Freshwater stress & groundwater depletion | Immediate constraint on cities/agriculture; strong non-linear societal risks. | GRACE-FO, WRI Aqueduct, FAO AQUASTAT | Basins in high / extreme stress |
| 5- 🌪 Atmospheric Circulation & Regional Climate Stability | | | | | |
| 14 | AMOC strength | Potential tipping with profound hydroclimate/sea-level impacts for Europe and tropics. | RAPID-AMOC, OSNAP, reanalyses | Sverdrups vs baseline
|
| 15 | Monsoon systems stability | Controls water/food security for billions; sensitive to aerosols and AMOC. | IMD, CHIRPS, GPCC, reanalyses | Onset, rainfall anomalies, persistence |
| 16 | Wildfire burned area / fire weather index | Fast-moving hazard with health, carbon, and power system knock ons. | GFED, Copernicus CAMS, ERA5 FWI | Burned area & FWI anomaly |
| 6- 🌾 Food, Water & Resource Security | | | | | |
| 17 | Global staple crop yields & stocks-to-use | Direct food security pressure valve and price shock predictor. | FAOSTAT, AMIS, USDA, IGC | Stocks to use ratio & yield anomalies |
| 18 | Urban/megacity water security (Day-Zero risk) | Concentrated systemic failure mode for >50% of humanity. | City utilities, Aqueduct, UNESCO WWDR | Cities in acute risk |
| 19 | Food trade chokepoints & supply-chain concentration | Single point failure risk across straits, ports, input suppliers. | Chatham House, UNCTAD, AIS data | Share through top chokepoints |
| 7- ⚙️ Energy, Infrastructure & Material Flow | | | | | |
| 20 | Energy system reliability & EROEI / grid stability | Modern society’s keystone; captures blackout risk and transition fragility. | IEA, ENTSO-E, national TSOs | SAIDI/SAIFI, reserve margins, EROEI |
| 21 | Critical-minerals supply risk (energy transition) | Bottleneck for scaling low-carbon systems; geopolitical leverage point. | IEA Critical Minerals, USGS, BGS | HHI concentration & lead times |
| 22 | Insurance retreat & financial climate risk | Early warning for uninsurable regions and housing/credit cascades. | Insurer filings, NGFS, IAIS | Premium hikes/withdrawals; VaR |
| 8- 🧬 Human Stability & Adaptive Capacity | | | | | |
| 23 | Extreme-heat exposure (wet-bulb population-days) | Closest to hard physiological limits; critical for labour and survival. | ERA5/ERA5‑Land + WorldPop | Pop‘ days above thresholds |
| 24 | Public-health capacity incl. AMR & pandemic emergence | Systemic mortality/morbidity amplifier that interacts with climate shocks. | WHO, ECDC/CDC, GISAID, GLASS | Hospital surge capacity; AMR burden |
| 25 | Mass displacement (forced migration volume) | Direct societal strain indicator crossing borders and services capacity. | UNHCR, IOM | Annual new displacements & stock |
| 26 | Conflict & instability risk (climate-linked) | Captures cascading trigger potential from resource and governance stress. | UCDP/PRIO, ACLED, Fragile States Index | Incidence/severity trends |
| 9- 🧠 Knowledge Integrity & Governance Resilience | | | | | |
| 27 | Epistemic resilience (mis/disinformation & media capture) | Truth erosion multiplies every other risk via governance paralysis. | Media freedom indices, platform transparency, survey data | Composite ˜truth access™ score |