According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other specialised agencies, an El Niño event could develop later in 2026, potentially pushing global temperatures to record levels in 2026 and especially in 2027.
Evolution of the global average temperature from 1850 to 2025, with the projected range for 2026 shown in green. Source: Berkeley EarthAccording to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, a transition from La Niña to ENSO neutral conditions is expected between February and April 2026, with a 60 percent probability, and neutral conditions are likely to persist through the northern hemisphere summer, with a 56 percent probability between June and August 2026. Thereafter, an El Niño event could develop towards the end of 2026 and continue into 2027, although uncertainties remain.
What is El Niño?
El Niño, according to NOAA, is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusual warming of waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which weakens the trade winds and alters global weather patterns. It is the warm phase of ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation,
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