La Niña likely fading as El Niño is expected to return

According to updates from the Climate Prediction Center, conditions increasingly favor the fading of La Niña and the possible return of El Niño, with roughly a 60% chance of transitioning to warmer patterns in early 2026.

As La Niña shows signs of fading, conditions are expected to transition toward El Niño in 2026, with roughly a 50–60% chance of El Niño forming in early 2026.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that there is a 60% chance of La Niña transitioning toward El Niño between February and April 2026. According to the update, La Niña, the current climate pattern that brings cooler-than-normal Pacific Ocean temperatures, is fading, and it is expected to shift into a brief period of ENSO-neutral conditions, when neither La Niña nor El Niño is present.

After this brief